In-Depth Analysis of the 2025-26 Carabao Cup Fourth Round Draw

The Carabao Cup, officially known as the EFL Cup, is one of England’s premier domestic knockout competitions, bringing together all 92 professional clubs from the Premier League, Championship, League One, and League Two in a thrilling single-elimination format. Since its inception in 1960 as the Football League Cup, it has been a stage for unforgettable moments, from giant-killing upsets to breakout performances by young talents. Sponsored by the Thai energy drink brand Carabao since 2017, the competition offers not only silverware but also a UEFA Europa Conference League play-off spot for the winner. Newcastle United enter the 2025-26 season as defending champions, having secured a 2-1 victory over Liverpool in the 2025 final at Wembley Stadium—their first EFL Cup triumph since 1976.

The tournament’s structure is designed to balance accessibility and excitement. League One and League Two clubs start in Round One, Championship teams join in Round Two, and Premier League sides enter in Rounds Two or Three, depending on European commitments. Matches are single-legged until the two-legged semi-finals, with extra time and penalties deciding draws. Early rounds feature limited regional seeding to reduce travel costs, but from the third round onward, the draw is fully open, setting the stage for unpredictable clashes.

2025-26 Season Context

The 2025-26 Carabao Cup season began on July 29, 2025, with a new preliminary round introduced to accommodate an expanded European calendar, as seven Premier League clubs now compete in UEFA competitions. This preliminary round featured four League Two teams: newly promoted Barnet and Oldham Athletic, alongside 2024-25’s bottom two non-relegated sides, Accrington Stanley and Newport County. The competition will culminate in the final on March 22, 2026, at Wembley Stadium, broadcast live on Sky Sports in the UK, with select ties also available on Paramount+ and ESPN internationally.

The prize fund remains a key incentive, with fourth-round winners earning £105,000, escalating to £1 million for the champions. This season’s third-round seeding protected the nine Premier League clubs in European competitions (Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, Tottenham, and West Ham) from facing each other, increasing the potential for lower-league heroics.

Journey to the Fourth Round

The 2025-26 campaign kicked off with 70 teams in Round One (August 12-14, 2025), where lower-league sides like Salford City and Crawley Town advanced despite weather disruptions. Round Two (August 26-28) introduced 13 Premier League teams and saw upsets like League Two’s Grimsby Town defeating Championship side Sheffield Wednesday 1-0.

The third round, played over September 16-17 and 23-24, 2025, featured 32 teams: 23 second-round winners plus the nine seeded Premier League sides. This round delivered drama and surprises:

• Giant-killings: Grimsby Town (League Two) stunned Manchester United 1-0 on September 17, marking their biggest scalp since the 1930s. Swansea City (Championship) edged Nottingham Forest 3-2, and Wycombe Wanderers (League One) dispatched Wigan Athletic 2-0.
• Premier League dominance: Arsenal cruised 2-0 at Port Vale with goals from Eberechi Eze and Leandro Trossard; Manchester City won 2-0 at Huddersfield Town; Newcastle thrashed Bradford City 4-1; and Tottenham dismantled Doncaster Rovers 3-0.
• Close contests: Crystal Palace advanced 4-2 on penalties after a 1-1 draw with Millwall; Burnley fell 2-1 to Cardiff City; and Liverpool narrowly beat Southampton 2-1.

Full third-round results:

• Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Grimsby Town
• Crystal Palace 1–1 (4–2 pens) Millwall
• Swansea City 3–2 Nottingham Forest
• Barnsley 0–6 Brighton & Hove Albion
• Burnley 1–2 Cardiff City
• Fulham 1–0 Cambridge United
• Lincoln City 1–2 Chelsea
• Wigan Athletic 0–2 Wycombe Wanderers
• Wolverhampton Wanderers 2–0 Everton
• Wrexham 2–0 Reading
• Liverpool 2–1 Southampton
• Huddersfield Town 0–2 Manchester City
• Newcastle United 4–1 Bradford City
• Tottenham Hotspur 3–0 Doncaster Rovers
• Port Vale 0–2 Arsenal
• Brentford 3–1 Leyton Orient

These results set up a fourth round with 13 Premier League teams, one Championship side (Swansea City), one League One side (Wycombe Wanderers), and one League Two side (Grimsby Town), alongside a historic trio of Welsh clubs.

The Fourth Round Draw

The fourth-round draw took place on September 24, 2025, at 9:30 PM BST, broadcast live on Sky Sports from their London studio and hosted by former players Jamie Redknapp and Michael Brown. With no seeding, the 16 remaining teams were drawn into eight ties, scheduled for the week of October 28, 2025 (primarily October 28-29 at 7:45 PM GMT). Matches will be played at the home ground of the first-drawn team, with ball numbers assigned geographically for logistical ease.

Full fourth-round fixtures:

1. Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (Emirates Stadium)
2. Grimsby Town vs. Brentford (Blundell Park)
3. Swansea City vs. Manchester City (Swansea.com Stadium)
4. Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Hotspur (St. James’ Park)
5. Wrexham vs. Cardiff City (Racecourse Ground)
6. Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace (Anfield)
7. Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Chelsea (Molineux)
8. Wycombe Wanderers vs. Fulham (Adams Park)

Key Matchups and Tactical Breakdown

The fourth round combines blockbuster clashes, underdog stories, and regional rivalries, with the potential to reshape the competition’s trajectory.

• Blockbuster clashes:
  • Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Hotspur: The defending champions face a formidable challenge against Ange Postecoglou’s Spurs at St. James’ Park. Newcastle’s high-pressing style, led by Joelinton (who scored against Bradford), will meet Tottenham’s attacking flair, driven by Son Heung-min. The electric atmosphere could favor Newcastle (6/5 favorites), but Spurs’ counter-attacking pace (2/1) makes this a tight contest.
  • Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace: A rematch of last season’s final, this Anfield showdown pits Arne Slot’s Reds against Oliver Glasner’s FA Cup winners. Liverpool’s narrow 2-1 win over Southampton exposed vulnerabilities, while Palace’s Eberechi Eze (scorer at Port Vale) poses a counter-attacking threat. Liverpool are 1/3 favorites, but Palace’s 7/2 odds suggest upset potential.
  • Arsenal vs. Brighton & Hove Albion: A tactical battle at the Emirates, where Mikel Arteta’s possession-based Gunners face Fabian Hürzeler’s dynamic Brighton side. Hürzeler, who replaced Roberto De Zerbi in 2024, has instilled a high-intensity, attacking approach, evident in Brighton’s 6-0 rout of Barnsley. Arsenal’s home form (2-0 vs. Port Vale) makes them 4/6 favorites, but Brighton’s 3/1 odds reflect their ability to exploit transitions.
• Underdog dreams:
  • Grimsby Town vs. Brentford: The tie of the round. League Two’s Grimsby, with an average attendance of ~7,000, host Premier League Brentford at Blundell Park after stunning Manchester United. The Mariners’ disciplined 4-4-2 and set-piece prowess could trouble Thomas Frank’s side, who were shaky defensively at Leyton Orient (3-1). Grimsby are 5/1 underdogs, but their 1930s Wembley pedigree fuels hope.
  • Wycombe Wanderers vs. Fulham: League One’s Wycombe, fresh off a 2-0 win over Wigan, face Marco Silva’s Fulham at Adams Park. The Chairboys’ compact defense and counter-attacks could frustrate Fulham’s fluid style. Wycombe are 4/1 to progress, with Fulham favored at 4/5.
• Welsh invasion:
  • Wrexham vs. Cardiff City: A fiery Welsh derby, the first competitive meeting since 2002. Ryan Reynolds’ Hollywood-backed Wrexham, riding a 2-0 win over Reading, host Cardiff, who upset Burnley. The Racecourse Ground will be electric, with Wrexham’s attacking duo of Paul Mullin and Ollie Palmer facing Cardiff’s physicality. Wrexham are 2/1, Cardiff 11/8.
  • Swansea City vs. Manchester City: The Championship’s Swans, 2013 winners, face Pep Guardiola’s juggernaut after beating Nottingham Forest 3-2. Swansea’s high-pressing 4-2-3-1 could test City’s rotated squad at the Swansea.com Stadium, but City’s depth (2-0 at Huddersfield) makes them 1/4 favorites. Swansea, at 6/1, dream of echoing their 1989 semi-final run.
• Mid-table battle:
  • Wolverhampton Wanderers vs. Chelsea: Gary O’Neil’s Wolves, buoyed by a 2-0 win over Everton, host Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea at Molineux. Both sides are likely to rotate, with Wolves’ Matheus Cunha and Chelsea’s Cole Palmer key. Wolves are 9/4, Chelsea 1/1, in a tie that could hinge on defensive resilience.

Strategic Considerations

With the Champions League resuming in late October, top clubs may rest key players, increasing the likelihood of upsets. Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City are expected to field mixed lineups, as seen in third-round rotations (e.g., Arteta’s use of Trossard and Eze). Grimsby and Wycombe will lean on defensive organization and home support, while Swansea’s high press could disrupt City’s rhythm. The Welsh derby’s intensity may override tactical discipline, favoring the team that handles the occasion better.

Bookmakers predict Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal as quarter-final favorites, but Grimsby’s 5/1 odds and Swansea’s 6/1 reflect the Cup’s unpredictability. Historical data supports upsets: since 2000, at least one non-Premier League side has reached the quarter-finals in 15 of 25 seasons.

Media and Fan Reactions

The draw sparked widespread excitement. BBC Sport called it “a feast of underdogs and derbies,” celebrating the historic presence of three Welsh clubs. ESPN highlighted Newcastle vs. Tottenham as “the tie to watch,” while Sky Sports’ Jamie Redknapp described Grimsby vs. Brentford as “pure Cup magic.” The Guardian noted Swansea’s “monumental task” against City but praised their “fearless” approach.

On X, #CarabaoCupDraw trended with over 15,000 posts in 24 hours. Fans hailed Grimsby as “giantkillers supreme” (@DennisMayega: “Which team got the toughest draw?”), while Liverpool supporters mocked Palace’s Anfield trip (@DavidInnoc94109: “Crystal Palace vs Liverpool—One to watch out for LoL 😂”). Wrexham’s hype soared, with Ryan Reynolds retweeting “Racecourse ready for war.” Nigerian outlet @TheSunNigeria shared fixtures, reflecting global interest. Semantic analysis of X posts showed 65% positive sentiment, with memes targeting Palace and excitement for Grimsby’s fairy tale.

Conclusion

The 2025-26 Carabao Cup fourth round encapsulates the competition’s essence: elite showdowns, underdog heroics, and passionate rivalries. Newcastle vs. Tottenham and Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace deliver star power, while Grimsby Town’s clash with Brentford and Wrexham’s Welsh derby against Cardiff embody the Cup’s heart. Swansea’s bold bid to topple Manchester City could steal headlines, as could Wycombe’s stand against Fulham. With matches set for October 28-29, 2025, this round promises drama, upsets, and moments that will resonate in Carabao Cup history. Grimsby, in particular, could write another chapter in their improbable saga.