Premier League Gameweek 36 Predictions: Newcastle vs Chelsea and Liverpool vs Arsenal

As the Premier League season nears its climax, Gameweek 36 delivers two blockbuster clashes with massive implications for the Champions League race and individual accolades. On Sunday, May 11, 2025, Newcastle United host Chelsea at St. James’ Park, while champions Liverpool welcome Arsenal to Anfield. Both matches promise high stakes, attacking flair, and tactical intrigue. Below, we dive into detailed predictions, key stats, player form, and betting angles for these pivotal encounters, drawing on recent performances, historical data, and insights from the footballing world.

Newcastle vs Chelsea: A Champions League Qualification Showdown

Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025
Venue: St. James’ Park, Newcastle
Kick-off: 12:30 PM (local time)
Prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea

Match Context

This clash is a defining moment in the race for Champions League qualification. Newcastle and Chelsea are level on points, both eyeing a top-five finish to secure a spot in Europe’s elite competition next season. Chelsea arrive buoyed by a statement 3-1 victory over champions Liverpool, showcasing their attacking prowess and newfound midfield steel. Newcastle, however, are licking their wounds after a frustrating 1-1 draw at Brighton, where Alexander Isak’s late penalty salvaged a point. With both teams desperate for three points, expect an open, end-to-end battle at St. James’ Park.

Team Analysis

Newcastle United

Strengths:

• Alexander Isak’s Lethal Finishing: The Swedish striker is Newcastle’s talisman, scoring in both games against Arsenal this season and netting a crucial penalty against Brighton. His goal every 133 minutes in the Premier League is second only to Andrew Cole in Newcastle’s history, and he’s scored in both encounters with Chelsea this campaign (Premier League and EFL Cup).
• Home Fortress: St. James’ Park remains a cauldron, with Newcastle winning two of their last three home games against Arsenal and losing just once in their previous 11 home Premier League matches before recent stumbles. Their 77.89% chance of a top-five finish (per Opta) reflects their home strength.
• Jacob Murphy’s Impact: The winger’s chemistry with Isak is a key weapon, with eight assists in his last 20 starts. His direct running could exploit Chelsea’s occasionally shaky full-backs.

Weaknesses:

• Inconsistent Form: Newcastle’s recent results have been patchy, with home losses to Bournemouth and Fulham, plus a 4-1 thrashing at Aston Villa. Their defense has conceded 2.4 goals per game against elite sides like Liverpool and Manchester City.
• Injury Concerns: Eddie Howe is sweating over Joelinton (doubtful), while Callum Wilson, Harvey Barnes, and Jamaal Lascelles are likely to miss out, limiting squad depth.

Chelsea

Strengths:

• Resurgent Attack: Chelsea have hit their stride during the run-in, winning three straight matches against Fulham, Everton, and Liverpool. Their 66.52% chance of a top-five finish underscores their momentum.
• Cole Palmer’s Return to Form: The attacking midfielder ended a seven-game goal drought against Liverpool, and his creativity (29 shots in recent games) remains vital. Nicolas Jackson’s return has also boosted Chelsea’s attack, with the team averaging 1.9 goals per game when he starts compared to 1.25 without him.
• Midfield Dynamism: Romeo Lavia’s emergence has added bite, with 15 duels won and five tackles in recent starts, complementing Moises Caicedo’s work rate.

Weaknesses:

• Away Struggles: Chelsea’s Achilles’ heel is their away form, with no Premier League road wins since December and three consecutive away losses. Their defense has leaked goals against top-half sides, particularly from set-pieces.
• Defensive Frailty: Despite Wesley Fofana’s return, Chelsea have conceded in recent matches, and their high line could be vulnerable to Newcastle’s pacey wingers like Anthony Gordon.

Head-to-Head

Chelsea have dominated recent meetings at Stamford Bridge, winning four of the last five, but St. James’ Park is a different beast. Newcastle secured a 1-0 victory in last season’s corresponding fixture, and their home record against Chelsea (W2 D1 L2 in the last five) suggests a tight contest.

Key Stats

• Newcastle:
  • 77.89% chance of a top-five finish (Opta supercomputer).
  • Isak has scored 11 goals in 11 home games this season.
  • Conceded 2.4 goals per game against top-tier opponents.
• Chelsea:
  • 66.52% chance of a top-five finish (Opta).
  • Averaged 1.9 goals per game with Jackson starting.
  • Failed to win any of their last three Premier League away games.
• Player Watch:
  • Isak vs. Chelsea’s Defense: His movement and finishing could punish Fofana and Levi Colwill, who’ve struggled against pacey forwards.
  • Palmer’s Creativity: His ability to unlock defenses (five assists in his last eight games) will test Newcastle’s backline.

Sentiment on X

The X platform is buzzing with debate. Newcastle fans are optimistic, with some claiming their side will “bully Chelsea” for a Champions League spot, citing Isak’s form and home advantage. Chelsea supporters counter with their team’s recent wins and attacking depth, though many acknowledge their away woes could be a stumbling block.

Predicted Lineups

• Newcastle (4-3-3): Pope; Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock; Murphy, Isak, Gordon.
• Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; James, Fofana, Colwill, Cucurella; Lavia, Caicedo; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Jackson.

Betting Angle

Given both teams’ attacking firepower and defensive lapses, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (Sky Bet) is a strong bet. Newcastle’s home scoring (Isak’s 11 in 11) and Chelsea’s output against top sides (2+ goals in 13 of 18 games) point to a high-scoring draw.

Liverpool vs Arsenal: Champions Face a Desperate Gunners Side

Date: Sunday, May 11, 2025
Venue: Anfield, Liverpool
Kick-off: 2:00 PM (local time)
Prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Arsenal

Match Context

Liverpool, fresh off clinching the Premier League title, face Arsenal in a match that’s nearly a dead rubber for the Reds but critical for the Gunners’ Champions League aspirations. Arne Slot’s side suffered a rare 3-1 defeat to Chelsea last week, ending a 26-game unbeaten run, while Arsenal’s title hopes (0.6% per Opta) are all but extinguished after a Champions League exit to PSG and a three-game winless streak in the Premier League. With Arsenal desperate to secure a top-five finish, this Anfield clash promises intensity, even if Liverpool’s motivation may waver post-title celebrations.

Team Analysis

Liverpool

Strengths:

• Anfield Dominance: Liverpool have been near-unbeatable at home, earning 44 points from 17 games (W14 D2 L1) and losing just once this season (1-0 to Nottingham Forest). Their 46.6% win probability (Opta) reflects this fortress.
• Mohamed Salah’s Record Chase: Salah is tied with Andy Cole and Alan Shearer for the most goal involvements in a single Premier League season (47, with 28 goals and 18 assists). He’s 11/4 (Sky Bet) to score or assist, a bet backed by his 15 goal involvements in 12 games against Arsenal.
• Diogo Jota’s Finishing: Jota’s goal every 142 minutes could exploit Arsenal’s set-piece frailty, where 39% of their goals conceded originate.

Weaknesses:

• Post-Title Dip?: Liverpool’s intensity may dip after securing the title, as seen in their Chelsea loss. Historically, only two teams (Arsenal 1997-98, Chelsea 2005-06) have lost both games immediately after clinching the championship.
• Set-Piece Vulnerability: Chelsea’s set-piece goal last week exposed a rare weakness, which Arsenal’s attacking set-piece prowess could target.

Arsenal

Strengths:

• Resilience Against Liverpool: Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against Liverpool (W2 D3), including a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture. This record offers hope despite their underdog status.
• Emerging Talent: Martin Ødegaard’s return to form (two goals in three games) and academy stars like Ethan Nwaneri provide creativity, even with injuries to Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Ben White, and Takehiro Tomiyasu.
• Set-Piece Threat: Arsenal’s attacking set-pieces are a weapon, with 12 goals from dead balls this season, which could trouble Liverpool’s occasionally shaky defending.

Weaknesses:

• Defensive Frailty: Arsenal have conceded 12 of 31 goals from set-pieces (the highest share in the league) and leaked nine goals in their last five games, compared to eight in their previous 19.
• Injury Crisis: Without Saka, Jesus, White, and Tomiyasu, Arsenal’s squad is stretched, forcing Mikel Arteta to rely on less experienced players like Nwaneri and Jurrien Timber.
• Fading Form: No wins in their last three Premier League games and a 21-point drop from winning positions highlight Arsenal’s struggles under pressure.

Head-to-Head

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 14 home games against Arsenal across all competitions (W7 D7), but Arsenal’s recent resilience in this fixture (no losses in five league meetings) suggests a competitive encounter. The Gunners’ ability to frustrate Liverpool’s attack, as seen in last season’s 1-1 draw at Anfield, could keep the scoreline tight.

Key Stats

• Liverpool:
  • 46.6% chance of winning, 25.7% for a draw (Opta).
  • 44 points from 17 home games (W14 D2 L1).
  • Salah needs two goal involvements to break the single-season record (47).
• Arsenal:
  • 27.7% chance of winning (Opta).
  • Conceded 39% of goals from set-pieces, the highest in the league.
  • Dropped 21 points from winning positions this season.
• Player Watch:
  • Salah vs. Arsenal’s Defense: His record against Arsenal (15 goal involvements in 12 games) makes him a constant threat.
  • Ødegaard’s Creativity: His vision could unlock Liverpool’s high line, especially with Nwaneri’s support.

Sentiment on X

Arsenal fans on X are divided. Some believe their side can capitalize on Liverpool’s potential post-title relaxation, citing their strong recent record against the Reds. Others are pessimistic, pointing to the injury crisis and set-piece woes. Liverpool supporters, meanwhile, expect Salah to steal the show in pursuit of the goal-involvement record.

Predicted Lineups

• Liverpool (4-3-3): Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai; Salah, Jota, Diaz.
• Arsenal (4-2-3-1): Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Rice, Partey; Nwaneri, Ødegaard, Martinelli; Havertz.

Betting Angle

Liverpool’s home dominance and Salah’s motivation to break records make Liverpool to win and Salah to score or assist at 100/30 (Sky Bet) a compelling bet. Arsenal’s set-piece issues and injury concerns tilt the scales in Liverpool’s favor, though their resilience against the Reds ensures a close contest.

Summary and Betting Tips

• Newcastle vs Chelsea: A thrilling 2-2 draw is on the cards, with Isak and Jackson likely to shine. Both teams’ attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities point to goals galore. Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (4/5, Sky Bet).
• Liverpool vs Arsenal: Liverpool’s Anfield fortress and Salah’s record-chasing form should edge out an Arsenal side hampered by injuries and set-piece frailties. A 2-1 home win is predicted. Bet: Liverpool win and Salah to score/assist (100/30, Sky Bet).

Stats to Watch

• Newcastle vs Chelsea:
  • Isak’s home scoring streak (11 goals in 11 games).
  • Chelsea’s away struggles (no wins since December).
  • Both teams’ tendency to concede against top-half sides.
• Liverpool vs Arsenal:
  • Liverpool’s Anfield dominance (44 points from 17 games).
  • Arsenal’s set-piece concessions (39% of goals).
  • Salah’s pursuit of the goal-involvement record (47).

For the latest odds and real-time updates, visit trusted platforms like Sky Bet. If you’re looking to enhance your betting insights, consider exploring the SuperGrok subscription at https://x.ai/grok for advanced analytics. Stay tuned for what promises to be a thrilling Sunday of Premier League action!