Nottingham Forest vs Brentford Prediction, Stats, and Head-to-Head

The Premier League clash between Nottingham Forest and Brentford at The City Ground on Thursday, May 1, 2025, at 6:30 PM UTC promises to be a competitive encounter. Both teams have European ambitions, with Forest chasing a Champions League spot and Brentford aiming for a top-10 finish. Below is a detailed breakdown of the prediction, key stats, and head-to-head (H2H) history based on available data.

Prediction

• Match Outcome: The game is expected to be closely contested, with a slight edge to Nottingham Forest due to their strong home form and recent victory over Brentford. Predictive models give Forest a 41.6% chance of winning, Brentford a 32.9% chance, and a 25.5% chance of a draw. However, Brentford’s potent attack and resilience on the road make them a dangerous opponent, and a draw or a narrow Brentford win cannot be ruled out.
• Recommended Bet: Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is a strong betting option at -163 odds, given the attacking quality of both sides and their H2H trends. Alternatively, Under 2.5 Goals at +210 odds is appealing due to Forest’s recent low-scoring home games.
• Scoreline Prediction: A 1-1 draw or a 2-1 win for either side is likely, with goals expected based on historical trends and current form.

Key Stats

Team Form

• Nottingham Forest:
  • League Position: 5th (level on points with 6th-placed Aston Villa, two points behind 3rd-placed Newcastle).
  • Recent Form: Forest have had a mixed run, with 3 wins, 4 losses, and 1 draw in their last 8 Premier League matches. They recently ended a two-game losing streak with a 2-1 win at Tottenham.
  • Home Form: Forest had a nine-game unbeaten run at home (7 wins, 2 draws) until a 1-0 loss to Everton in their last home game. Their home games have been low-scoring, with the last four matches averaging 0.75 goals per game (under 1.5 goals).
  • Key Stats:
    • Averaging 1.53 goals scored per match this season, with 1.94 points per game at home.
    • 19% of shots converted into goals by Chris Wood, the highest shot conversion rate in the Premier League since 2003-04 for players with 50+ shots.
    • Second in the league for goals from high turnovers (9), despite forcing fewer high turnovers than most teams.
  • Key Players:
    • Chris Wood: 19 Premier League goals this season, one shy of matching Stan Collymore’s club record of 20 in a single campaign.
    • Anthony Elanga: 9 assists, a key creative force.
    • Morgan Gibbs-White: 7 assists, central to Forest’s attacking play.
• Brentford:
  • League Position: 11th.
  • Recent Form: Brentford are unbeaten in their last three league games (1 win, 2 draws), including a 4-2 home win over Brighton. However, they are winless in all 10 midweek Premier League games since last season (3 draws, 7 losses).
  • Away Form: Brentford have struggled on the road, averaging 1.13 points per game away and winning 5 of their last 16 away matches. Their last two away games yielded just one point.
  • Key Stats:
    • Averaging 1.72 goals scored per match, with a league-high 14.8% shot conversion rate.
    • 68% of matches between Forest and Brentford have seen Both Teams to Score (BTTS), with an average of 3.05 goals per game.
    • Brentford have scored 56 goals this season with 149 shots on target, but they’ve conceded in 82% of their matches.
  • Key Players:
    • Bryan Mbeumo: 18 goals, 8 in 2025 alone, trailing only Salah, Mateta, and Isak.
    • Yoane Wissa: 16 goals, consistently dangerous with at least 2 shots in most recent games.
    • Mikkel Damsgaard: 10 assists, a key playmaker.

Team News

• Nottingham Forest:
  • Injuries: Ola Aina (calf) is close to returning but may miss out, with Harry Toffolo likely to continue at left-back. The squad is otherwise near full strength.
  • Possible Lineup (3-4-3): Sels; Milenkovic, Murillo, Morato; Williams, Gibbs-White, Anderson, Toffolo; Elanga, Hudson-Odoi, Wood.
• Brentford:
  • Injuries: Fabio Carvalho (shoulder), Joshua Dasilva (knee), and Vitaly Janelt (heel) are out, with Carvalho and Janelt unlikely to return this season. Igor Thiago and Aaron Hickey are back in training but not ready to play. Rico Henry is building fitness but may remain a substitute.
  • Possible Lineup (4-2-3-1): Flekken; Ajer, Collins, Van den Berg, Lewis-Potter; Norgaard, Yarmolyuk; Mbeumo, Damsgaard, Schade; Wissa.

Head-to-Head (H2H)

• Overall Record:
  • In 24 meetings since 2005, Brentford have won 11, Nottingham Forest 8, and 5 have ended in draws.
  • Total goals: Brentford 39, Forest 35 (average of 3.08 goals per match).
• Recent H2H:
  • December 21, 2024 (Premier League): Nottingham Forest won 2-0 at Brentford’s Gtech Community Stadium, with goals from Ola Aina and Anthony Elanga. This ended Forest’s six-game winless run against Brentford (3 draws, 3 losses).
  • January 20, 2024 (Premier League): Brentford won 3-2 at home.
  • October 1, 2023 (Premier League): 1-1 draw at The City Ground.
  • April 29, 2023 (Premier League): Brentford won 2-1 at home.
  • November 5, 2022 (Premier League): 2-2 draw at The City Ground.
• Trends:
  • Brentford have won 6 of their last 12 visits to The City Ground, with Forest winning 4 and 2 draws. The goal difference is 20-15 in Brentford’s favor.
  • Forest’s last home win against Brentford was in 2019.
  • No 0-0 draw has occurred in this fixture since February 1935, suggesting goals are likely.
  • The most common scoreline is 1-2 (4 matches).

Analysis

• Nottingham Forest Strengths: Forest’s defensive solidity (6 clean sheets this season) and clinical finishing, led by Chris Wood, make them formidable at home. Their ability to score from high turnovers and counter-attacks suits their pragmatic style under Nuno Espirito Santo. However, their recent home loss to Everton and struggles to break down compact defenses could be a concern.
• Brentford Strengths: Brentford’s attacking duo of Mbeumo and Wissa, combined with their high shot conversion rate, ensures they are a threat. Their ability to score in clusters (e.g., 4-2 vs. Brighton) makes them dangerous, especially against defenses that tire late. However, their midweek struggles and depleted squad depth due to injuries could hinder them.
• Key Matchups:
  • Chris Wood vs. Brentford’s Defense: Wood’s aerial prowess (3 headed goals this season) could exploit Brentford’s vulnerability to headers (10 conceded, league-high).
  • Mbeumo/Wissa vs. Forest’s Backline: Brentford’s forwards will test Forest’s low conversion rate against (8.3%, best in the league).
  • Midfield Battle: Forest’s Gibbs-White and Anderson will need to outshine Brentford’s Norgaard and Yarmolyuk to control the game’s tempo.

Conclusion

This match is likely to be a tight affair with both teams desperate for points to fuel their European aspirations. Nottingham Forest’s home advantage and recent win over Brentford give them a slight edge, but Brentford’s attacking firepower makes them a threat. A 1-1 draw with Both Teams to Score is a realistic outcome, supported by H2H trends and current form. Bettors may also consider Under 2.5 Goals given Forest’s recent low-scoring home games.

For the latest odds and live updates, check platforms like Bet365 or Sofascore. Always gamble responsibly.

Note: Stats and predictions are based on data available up to May 1, 2025, and may shift closer to match day.